PB vs. 2,000 Baccarat shoes from the Wizard of Odds
I have been battling the conventional wisdom for a very long time, so I am used to shills and trolls (blend those two words together and you get something appropriate) arguing that the data sets I present are anecdotal or non-representative or–horrors!–irrelevant.
It’s all part of the game.
Casino insiders are committed to trashing any betting method that threatens their outsize edge, an advantage at table games that has less to do with the core numbers than with player psychology.
There is abundant evidence to support the axiom that ‘any amount bet against a negative expectation must have a negative outcome’ but all of it is dependent on bets being either fixed (flat) or randomly selected.
The truth is that the vast majority of recreational gamblers bet very narrow spreads (one to ten is dizzyingly brave by most standards) and take fright when the win-loss pattern just encountered threatens their meager bankroll.
Pattern betting, aka Target/Turnaround, made a handy profit against the Wizard of Odds’ impressive blackjack sim, and is now doing the same against Baccarat WinPro’s superlative software.
But a few thousand bets are never enough, which is why I dug back in time to 2011, when I downloaded 2,000 simulated baccarat shoes from Mike Shackleford’s website and tested the then current Target algorithm against them.
Winning was hard at times, but it happened against both data sets, around 150,000 rounds in all.
Sure, the bankroll required was enormous and under occasional extreme pressure, bets climbed into six figures.
But consider two realities: One, baccarat is a game that attracts more high rollers even than poker or blackjack, and Two, the only way to beat negative expectation is with a bankroll that comes as close as possible to the gob-smacking resources that a casino has behind it.
In other words, it takes money to make money, and you have to lose to win, just two of many Las Vegas cliches that set the scene for this very uneven battle.
I hear Mr. Shackleford has put up a few bazillion more simulated shoes to stymie system players since I downloaded the 2,000 featured in this video, but I am hoping you will agree than my point is proven and pattern betting (or *progressive* betting) is the only way to win consistently.